News

What's happening: The economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict is sobering — the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to Western commercial shipping, creating the largest oil supply disruption in history.

Why it matters: This isn't just an energy story. Fertilizer, food security, and industrial supply chains are all under pressure. 

By the numbers:

• 90% — Drop in vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz
• 8M barrels/day — Net oil deficit, roughly 8% of global demand 
• $100/barrel — Current oil price, with estimates of $15–$30/barrel increases per week if the disruption persists
• 132 container vessels carrying ~10% of global container capacity are trapped in the Gulf

What to watch: The next 1–2 months will be the maximum disruption point as rerouted cargo floods alternative ports. Even if the conflict ended tomorrow, it would take 6+ months for shipping to normalize.

‌The bottom line: The disruption is manageable in the short term, but every day it continues, markets get tighter.